Notes on the Week Ahead

A few years ago, I read a tragic story in a local newspaper about a young man who was walking along the train tracks with his earphones blasting loud music. Far ahead, he could see a train hurtling towards him and people on the side of the tracks were yelling and waving to get his attention. He ignored them, he had plenty of time to move … and then he was instantly killed by a train coming the other way. As we head towards the mid-term elections, America is bitterly divided politically, and many investors worry that "Chaos in Washington," variously defined, will cause the market to crash.

I was in a meeting recently discussing asset allocation when a much-esteemed British colleague suggested that a certain strategy was like "fixing the roof while the sun shines." Growing up in agricultural Ireland, I had always heard something slightly different, namely that you should "make hay while the sun shines." Truth be told, the sun so rarely makes an appearance in the British Isles, that when it does, the temptation is to down tools, grab a book and a beer and soak in the rays.

Like most people, I have my minor obsessions, and one of them is a never-ending quest to run faster. A few weeks ago, I saw a story about some running shoes that would let you run 4% faster (or rather use 4% less energy when running which amounts to roughly the same thing). I had to get a pair.

I get to fly far more than I would like for my job and air travel today in the United States is no picnic. Everyone talks about the hassle of the security lines. But the real problem is the boredom – sitting for hours in a seat with little contact with the outside world or useful distractions. However, the one advantage of a long flight is that it does give you time to think.

When I was in school, one of the most agonizing periods was the time between taking an exam and getting it back. This strange, uncomfortable time would end in one of two ways. If I did well, it would generate a sort of positive momentum for my studies. On the other hand, if I did poorly, there would be an element of discouragement that weighed on my desire to engage. The U.S. economy submitted its July exam a few weeks ago; this week, we’ll get our first peek at whether the solid U.S. growth momentum seen in the second quarter carried over into the third, and what it might suggest for the broader trajectory of global growth.

I am, I suppose, somewhere in the middle of the pack when it comes desk organization. Somewhere, that is, between a "compulsive." whose desk is clean except for a small symmetrical pile of papers beside a cup of well-sharpened pencils, and a "chaotic." whose workspace looks like the emptied-out contents of a half dozen waste-paper baskets. The problem, of course, is how to impose some organization on the mountain of things you really should read or think about. I mean, where do you even start? I used to have the same problem when it came to describing the U.S. financial environment. 

My father was, for want of a better description, an Irish Victorian Dad. As such, although he cared deeply about all his children, he usually shied away from direct conversation about personal subjects and tried to get his point across in other ways.

The key to a successful career in economics, as in weather-forecasting, is never to be too precise. In the middle of winter, you won’t hear a meteorologist forecast five inches of snow for Central Park. However, she may well tell you we will get between four and six inches – her forecast thus indicating both what she expects and her personal doubts regarding that expectation.

"Ahem….I'll just leave the bill here, then. No rush at all – please take your time." The obsequious waiter leaves the check on the table but the Sopranos, loudly enjoying an excellent dinner, ignore it entirely and demand more lobsters. Paulie orders some champagne for some women at a table in the corner. There is some question as to who will, in the end, pay the bill. But for now, no one pays attention.

We live in an age obsessed with healthy food choices and I am at an age when I should be making them. However, on Saturday, I threw caution to the wind and walked down to our local pizza shop to pick up dinner.