Notes on the Week Ahead

The week ahead should provide plenty of evidence of a continued heating up of the U.S. economy. The ISM and Markit surveys on Services activity should remain at strong levels while International Trade data, due out on Friday, could add to evidence of roughly 5% real GDP growth in the second quarter. Payroll Employment, also due out on Friday, should show a healthy, roughly 200,000 job gain with the Unemployment Rate potentially falling to a fresh 48-year low of 3.7%. Meanwhile, the Average Hourly Earnings of production and non-supervisory workers could accelerate to growth of 2.9% year-over-year, suggesting that the labor shortage is finally putting some upward pressure on wages.

With most of the planet glued to the World Cup, I’ve been trying in the last few days to revive an interest in the beautiful game that has lain fallow since my childhood. Like baseball, the more you watch it, the more you realize is going on and I sometimes pity the job of the coach who has to drink in and analyze all the action in the first half and then find some way to explain it to the team in a distracted 15 minutes of halftime.

Every year, my wife and I buy increasing amounts of stuff from their shelves but they never seem to want to buy what I have to sell, which is primarily investment ideas and speeches. I should perhaps mention that we also run deficits with Whole Foods, CVS, the cable company, the electricity company, the auto service guys and a myriad of other business.

Marathon running is not, generally, much of a spectator sport. Not a lot happens for over two hours until someone finally crosses the finish line in jubilation. However, well before that point, the race is usually decided by a contest between a hare and the pack.

A number of years ago, I worked for a Swedish asset management firm and this occasionally required me to journey to Stockholm. On these visits, I was generally impressed by the good humor and intelligence of my Swedish colleagues. I was surprised, however, by two things: The quantity of alcohol they could drink at night and the amount of strong coffee they could subsequently consume the next day.

It's 4:30 p.m. and my plane has just landed at Logan. In 15 minutes, I'll be in my car but it could be two hours before I'm home. I live 20 miles from the airport but at this time of day there is just no fast way to my house. In short, my car is fueled for speed but there are roadblocks in every direction. Something similar could be said about the U.S. economy today.

One of the most annoying habits of American retailers is that they never let you enjoy the season you’re in.As the kids go back to school, they’re selling snow shovels.