Notes on the Week Ahead

In the week ahead, America will be focused on the killing of George Floyd and its aftermath. These are difficult days for our country, beset as we are by a pandemic, a deep recession, political division and racial tension.

In the early days of her marriage, my mother tried to achieve the almost impossible goals established by society for a 1960s wife.  Apart from tending to the needs of my somewhat Victorian father, she did her best, on an inadequate allowance, to keep herself and a growing family fed and clothed. 

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Unemployment Rate for April, which will undoubtedly be the single ugliest economic statistic of my lifetime. We estimate that, based mainly on continuing unemployment claims, the number will come in at 15.5%. We also estimate that roughly 19 million Payroll Jobs were lost in the month.

In the classic Roadrunner skit, the Coyote buries one ACME box of dynamite beneath a pile of birdseed, strings the wires to a detonator hidden behind a rock, waits for our hero to arrive and start pecking, and then forcefully pushes down on the plunger.

Every summer when I was growing up, we would spend a week or two on holiday in the West of Ireland.  These trips would always start in discomfort, as I was one of a large number of children squished into the back of a small car. 

In this uniquely repetitive era for all of us, Saturday marked a first for my wife, Sari, and I. Armed with a sharp pair of scissors and with a manic gleam in her eye, she attacked the task of cutting my hair.

Last week, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, a huge package of federal spending and tax cuts, primarily aimed at helping the economy weather the recession triggered by our “social distancing” response to the COVID-19 virus.

The problem with COVID-19 is that it is both sufficiently contagious and sufficiently lethal to exact a terrible human toll.  This toll, as can be seen from the mortality figures from China and Italy, can be made substantially worse when the health care system is overwhelmed.

The spread of COVID-19 continues to have a dramatic impact on lifestyles, economic activity, monetary and fiscal policy, and financial markets. 

2020 has quickly become the year of the virus. It should, of course, first be recognized that, for some families around the world today and, sadly probably many more in the months ahead, issues of economics, politics and finance will be but a small footnote to personal tragedy.