Notes on the Week Ahead

Springing to life nearly a mile above sea level, the Zambezi River gathers strength, speed and tributaries for more than two hundred miles before hurtling over the Chavuma Falls in Western Zambia. 

Despite a strong January jobs report, real economic growth is continuing to decelerate in the first quarter of 2020 and could fall below 2% year-over-year for the first time since 2016.

Last week, I decided to avoid shaking anyone’s hand. It’s not that I have a virus.  It’s just that my job, which involves lots of plane travel and hand-shaking, make me particularly susceptible to getting one.  And I would really rather not be ill.

Among the card games of my misspent youth was a game called Pontoon. The rules of Pontoon are very similar to Blackjack – the object is to get as close to 21 as possible without going over.

On economic news, the December Jobs report generally suggested stable growth. The payroll job gain, at 145,000, was slightly weaker than consensus but not alarmingly so.

25 years ago, I had the privilege of working with a very smart and well-respected strategist at a Wall Street sell-side firm.

My wife, Sari, and I have a long-standing disagreement about how warm our home should be.I contend that a man shouldn’t have to wear an overcoat in his own house just to ward off frostbite.

There’s an old saying that the reason some people bash their heads against the wall is because it feels so good when they stop. Many economists would see last week’s trade news in the same light, judging that Brexit, the threatened abandonment of NAFTA and the trade war with China were all populist-driven negatives for the global economy.

For investors, the market environment seems to be in a holding pattern, with little movement in economic fundamentals and a slow melt up in equity prices. For those trying to while away the time until there is some genuine change, there are some key questions that will be addressed by events in the week ahead.

The week ahead will be a busy one for economic data, with global PMI numbers on both manufacturing and services and U.S. readings on Light-Vehicle Sales, International Trade and Consumer Sentiment. However, as is usually the case in the first week of the month, the most important numbers will be contained in Friday's Jobs report.