Notes on the Week Ahead

Delaying deadlines

All my life, I have been running against clock and calendar. I pretend to hate the frenzy and wish for more flexibility. But the truth is, I couldn't really work any other way. Deadlines force decisions. Deadlines require efficiency. Deadlines provide clarity.

Wheels down for soft landing

Friday's Jobs report was essentially "wheels down for landing" on this long economic expansion, as the economy tries to navigate a smooth transition from 3% growth to a more sustainable 2%. However, given the volatility in the data, the passengers are understandably nervous.

Why deficits matter - The problem with one more steak

Should an overweight man, with elevated cholesterol, eat a 32-ounch steak? Probably not, you might say. Provided he stays comfortably seated in his chair, no short-term problems may ensue. However, in the long run, it is clearly risky and, even in the short run, some obviously negative effects are being masked by the fact that he is sitting, rather than engaging in vigorous exercise.

The extra sixpence

One of Charles Dickens’s most lovable characters, Mr. Micawber, offered a young David Copperfield sage advice on personal financial management. Spending sixpence under your income causes no problems, but spending sixpence over can set you on the road to ruin.

Political lions and corporate cattle

In the last scene of Sydney Pollack's beautiful movie "Out of Africa," two lions gather on the hero's grave and look out at the cattle on the plain below. It is a princely scene — an assumption that the animals below are somehow the property of the lions, to consume whenever they feel hungry. For some reason, I was reminded of this scene this week, as politicians from both parties decried what they saw as corporate bad behavior and proposed measures to fix it.

Decaffeinated economy

It is possible, I am told, for a person to function perfectly adequately for an entire day without caffeine. For myself, however, I need a large cup of Joe first thing in the morning, followed soon after by a second. In 2018, the American economy received a very strong cup of coffee, extra-bold Colombian, in the form of a tax cut.

Microwaves and markets

Last weekend, I installed a new microwave in our kitchen. Based on the directions, it was going to be easy -remove the old microwave from the wall plate, replace it with the new one, and then use two anchor bolts to secure the unit to the cabinet above.

Labeling the boxes

In his Notes on the Week Ahead, Dr. David Kelly examines the economic implications of the government shutdown, the peak of the earnings season, the January employment report, Chinese trade talks, weakening global PMIs and the first Fed meeting of the year.

Wounded Warriors

There is a famous old John Wayne movie, set in Ireland, called The Quiet Man. It is, to be honest, not a particularly authentic portrayal of my native land, but the plot is strong and includes a long drawn out brawl between Sean Thornton (played by Wayne) and his brother-in-law, Squire Danaher.

Earnings and the fog of Wall

The week ahead will be dominated by fourth-quarter earnings reports and increasing concerns about the damage being inflicted upon the economy by the government shutdown.