Notes on the Week Ahead

The Investment implications of the CARES act

Last week, Congress passed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, a huge package of federal spending and tax cuts, primarily aimed at helping the economy weather the recession triggered by our “social distancing” response to the COVID-19 virus.

Holding an economy in suspended animation

The problem with COVID-19 is that it is both sufficiently contagious and sufficiently lethal to exact a terrible human toll.  This toll, as can be seen from the mortality figures from China and Italy, can be made substantially worse when the health care system is overwhelmed.

The Investment Implications of COVID-19 ; an update

The spread of COVID-19 continues to have a dramatic impact on lifestyles, economic activity, monetary and fiscal policy, and financial markets. 

The year of the virus

2020 has quickly become the year of the virus. It should, of course, first be recognized that, for some families around the world today and, sadly probably many more in the months ahead, issues of economics, politics and finance will be but a small footnote to personal tragedy. 

When Markets drift apart

Springing to life nearly a mile above sea level, the Zambezi River gathers strength, speed and tributaries for more than two hundred miles before hurtling over the Chavuma Falls in Western Zambia. 

Adjusting strategy for slower growth

Despite a strong January jobs report, real economic growth is continuing to decelerate in the first quarter of 2020 and could fall below 2% year-over-year for the first time since 2016.

Virus

Last week, I decided to avoid shaking anyone’s hand. It’s not that I have a virus.  It’s just that my job, which involves lots of plane travel and hand-shaking, make me particularly susceptible to getting one.  And I would really rather not be ill.

Getting to 21 without going bust

Among the card games of my misspent youth was a game called Pontoon. The rules of Pontoon are very similar to Blackjack – the object is to get as close to 21 as possible without going over.

Stable Growth, Fading Risks and Rising Valuations

On economic news, the December Jobs report generally suggested stable growth. The payroll job gain, at 145,000, was slightly weaker than consensus but not alarmingly so.

Understanding Underreaction

25 years ago, I had the privilege of working with a very smart and well-respected strategist at a Wall Street sell-side firm.