Notes on the Week Ahead

Getting the test back

When I was in school, one of the most agonizing periods was the time between taking an exam and getting it back. This strange, uncomfortable time would end in one of two ways. If I did well, it would generate a sort of positive momentum for my studies. On the other hand, if I did poorly, there would be an element of discouragement that weighed on my desire to engage. The U.S. economy submitted its July exam a few weeks ago; this week, we’ll get our first peek at whether the solid U.S. growth momentum seen in the second quarter carried over into the third, and what it might suggest for the broader trajectory of global growth.

Organizing the international desk

I am, I suppose, somewhere in the middle of the pack when it comes desk organization. Somewhere, that is, between a "compulsive." whose desk is clean except for a small symmetrical pile of papers beside a cup of well-sharpened pencils, and a "chaotic." whose workspace looks like the emptied-out contents of a half dozen waste-paper baskets. The problem, of course, is how to impose some organization on the mountain of things you really should read or think about. I mean, where do you even start? I used to have the same problem when it came to describing the U.S. financial environment. 

The Fed's focus

My father was, for want of a better description, an Irish Victorian Dad. As such, although he cared deeply about all his children, he usually shied away from direct conversation about personal subjects and tried to get his point across in other ways.

Four to six inches of GDP growth

The key to a successful career in economics, as in weather-forecasting, is never to be too precise. In the middle of winter, you won’t hear a meteorologist forecast five inches of snow for Central Park. However, she may well tell you we will get between four and six inches – her forecast thus indicating both what she expects and her personal doubts regarding that expectation.

The danger in the deficit

"Ahem….I'll just leave the bill here, then. No rush at all – please take your time." The obsequious waiter leaves the check on the table but the Sopranos, loudly enjoying an excellent dinner, ignore it entirely and demand more lobsters. Paulie orders some champagne for some women at a table in the corner. There is some question as to who will, in the end, pay the bill. But for now, no one pays attention.

Pizza Shop Pressures - Economic disortions at the edge

We live in an age obsessed with healthy food choices and I am at an age when I should be making them. However, on Saturday, I threw caution to the wind and walked down to our local pizza shop to pick up dinner. 

Heating Up, Cooling Down, Preparing for What Comes Next

The week ahead should provide plenty of evidence of a continued heating up of the U.S. economy. The ISM and Markit surveys on Services activity should remain at strong levels while International Trade data, due out on Friday, could add to evidence of roughly 5% real GDP growth in the second quarter. Payroll Employment, also due out on Friday, should show a healthy, roughly 200,000 job gain with the Unemployment Rate potentially falling to a fresh 48-year low of 3.7%. Meanwhile, the Average Hourly Earnings of production and non-supervisory workers could accelerate to growth of 2.9% year-over-year, suggesting that the labor shortage is finally putting some upward pressure on wages.

Halftime checklist

With most of the planet glued to the World Cup, I’ve been trying in the last few days to revive an interest in the beautiful game that has lain fallow since my childhood. Like baseball, the more you watch it, the more you realize is going on and I sometimes pity the job of the coach who has to drink in and analyze all the action in the first half and then find some way to explain it to the team in a distracted 15 minutes of halftime.

My Trade Deficit with Costco

Every year, my wife and I buy increasing amounts of stuff from their shelves but they never seem to want to buy what I have to sell, which is primarily investment ideas and speeches. I should perhaps mention that we also run deficits with Whole Foods, CVS, the cable company, the electricity company, the auto service guys and a myriad of other business.

The hare and the pack

Marathon running is not, generally, much of a spectator sport. Not a lot happens for over two hours until someone finally crosses the finish line in jubilation. However, well before that point, the race is usually decided by a contest between a hare and the pack.