Episodes

Tuesday Oct 29, 2019
Jigsaw
Tuesday Oct 29, 2019
Tuesday Oct 29, 2019
The next few days will see a blizzard of news impacting financial markets. For investors, the most logical approach may be to look at the headlines one at a time and then see how they can be linked together in constructing a view of the investment environment.

Monday Oct 21, 2019
The Problem with Profits
Monday Oct 21, 2019
Monday Oct 21, 2019
The Tax Act of 2017 was a bit like a pair of speedy running shoes for U.S. corporate earnings. It allowed for a short-run burst of strong year-over-year gains. However, since the start of this year, these gains have plateaued and earnings growth is likely to be very slow going forward.

Monday Oct 14, 2019
Winning Ugly
Monday Oct 14, 2019
Monday Oct 14, 2019
Entering the fourth quarter of the year, nothing seems easy for investors either and there are a number of issues that are making it difficult for markets to move higher from here. However, it is important to recognize any softening in these impediments to progress.

Monday Oct 07, 2019
Close Calls
Monday Oct 07, 2019
Monday Oct 07, 2019
The financial environment facing U.S. investors in the year ahead will involve some very close calls.

Tuesday Oct 01, 2019
2020 Vision and Political Distortions
Tuesday Oct 01, 2019
Tuesday Oct 01, 2019
My eyesight isn’t what it used to be.It’s not quite as bad as my wife thinks it is, but if I’m watching a football game or trying to read slides from the back of a room, I now don a pair of specs.

Monday Sep 16, 2019
Why the Fed shouldn’t cut rates on Wednesday (but probably will)
Monday Sep 16, 2019
Monday Sep 16, 2019
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will conclude its September policy meeting. Futures' markets have priced in a high probability that they will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and this is likely what they will do. However, there are at least six good reasons why they shouldn't.

Monday Sep 09, 2019
Recession or Resilience: The Hiring Tiebreaker
Monday Sep 09, 2019
Monday Sep 09, 2019
In my admittedly conservative opinion, modern rackets have diminished the game of tennis as a spectacle. Booming serves from both opponents have led to fewer competitive games, with many sets turning into a rather dull march to six-all, ending in a tiebreaker. Now, there isn't any need for a tiebreaker in analyzing the long-run prospects for the U.S. economy since it really isn't a close call.

Monday Aug 26, 2019
Filling in the Demographic Pothole
Monday Aug 26, 2019
Monday Aug 26, 2019
In America today, there is an obsession with how to stimulate demand, with fiscal policy, monetary policy and currency policy all being deployed to rev up the economic engine. However, America is facing a demographic pothole, and unless we fill it, growth will be mediocre, at best, regardless of how we try to stoke demand.

Monday Aug 19, 2019
The Message from the Yield Curve
Monday Aug 19, 2019
Monday Aug 19, 2019
In days of yore, the sight of seagulls wheeling over an inland forest or fields was taken as a sure sign of a storm at sea. In a similar vein, last week, many investors took the sight of an inverted yield curve as a sign of impending recession.

Monday Aug 12, 2019
Investing for the Middle Run
Monday Aug 12, 2019
Monday Aug 12, 2019
I have always been a middle-distance runner. I think this serves me well today as, while many strategists and financial advisors talk about investing as a marathon, it is essentially a middle-distance discipline.