Notes on the Week Ahead

Stable Growth, Fading Risks and Rising Valuations

On economic news, the December Jobs report generally suggested stable growth. The payroll job gain, at 145,000, was slightly weaker than consensus but not alarmingly so.

Understanding Underreaction

25 years ago, I had the privilege of working with a very smart and well-respected strategist at a Wall Street sell-side firm.

Hot and Cold Wars

My wife, Sari, and I have a long-standing disagreement about how warm our home should be.I contend that a man shouldn’t have to wear an overcoat in his own house just to ward off frostbite.

A Turning Point in Trade Turmoil

There’s an old saying that the reason some people bash their heads against the wall is because it feels so good when they stop. Many economists would see last week’s trade news in the same light, judging that Brexit, the threatened abandonment of NAFTA and the trade war with China were all populist-driven negatives for the global economy.

Holding pattern

For investors, the market environment seems to be in a holding pattern, with little movement in economic fundamentals and a slow melt up in equity prices. For those trying to while away the time until there is some genuine change, there are some key questions that will be addressed by events in the week ahead.

Extra Toothpaste in the Tube: The Remarkable Elasticity of U.S. Labor Supply

The week ahead will be a busy one for economic data, with global PMI numbers on both manufacturing and services and U.S. readings on Light-Vehicle Sales, International Trade and Consumer Sentiment. However, as is usually the case in the first week of the month, the most important numbers will be contained in Friday's Jobs report.

Giving Thanks and Planning Ahead

This week, most Americans will be hopefully be focused on family and food rather than the economy and markets. However, at some stage over the long weekend, a few may decide that they have had a sufficient helping of both pie and relatives and be looking for a distraction.

Fiscal Truth and Investment Consequences

America’s finances have been deteriorating for almost two decades. In October 2000, the Treasury Department announced a budget surplus for the just-ended fiscal year of $236 billion or 2.3% of GDP. The federal debt amounted to just over $3.4 trillion or 34% of GDP.

The Inflation Corridor

My weight never changes. For pretty much all my adult life, I have looked down at the same small range of numbers on the bathroom scales. ... Much the same could be said of inflation in recent decades.

A Sudden Change in Seasons: Investing in a Slower-Growing Economy

Last week, the U.S. economy saw a sudden and definitive transition and settled into a path of slower growth.