Notes on the Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve maintains strict rules prohibiting FOMC members from commenting on the economic outlook or monetary policy in the 10 days preceding an FOMC meeting or on the following day.  Thereafter they are free to speak and over the last two weeks many have opined on both subjects.  Their opinions show remarkable unanimity.  They are focused on bringing inflation back down to their 2% target.  They acknowledge the uncertainty in the economic outlook, and, as a consequence, they profess themselves to be “data dependent” and frequently quote, with furrowed brows, the year-over-year increases in CPI and consumption deflator measures of inflation.

A famous Sherlock Holmes story concerns the abduction of a race horse and a guard dog that didn’t bark.  For those who haven’t read the story, I’ll skip over the reason for the dog’s silence.  The point is he didn’t bark – no alarm was raised – no actions were taken - and the horse disappeared.

Entering the fourth quarter of 2022, the U.S. economy is teetering on the edge of recession.  However, it is a recession that has been delayed and potentially softened by an excess demand for labor, the lack of over-building in the most cyclical sectors of the economy and healthy bank balance sheets. 

In weighing the value of any security, the scales of financial markets are supposed to maintain a fine balance between fundamentals and price.  The plate of fundamental factors is piled high with macro trends, geopolitical issues, weather and environmental events, policy decisions and individual security attributes.  The other plate is far more sparsely occupied – price stands alone, accounting for half of any assessment of the opportunity and risk in the purchase of an asset. 

When future historians reflect upon the current age, they might call it “the worry years”.

As America emerges from the pandemic, there are still serious health concerns, a yawning political divide, rising autocracy around the world, a brutal war in Europe and the highest inflation in 40 years. Moreover, anxiety triggered by these genuine problems is being amplified by cable channels and social media which ever more efficiently gather their audience by appealing to fear and outrage.

 

On Saturday, Sari and I made our annual pilgrimage to Kimballs for lobster roll.  Kimball Farm, which started as an ice-cream stand in Westford, Massachusetts, has ballooned into a huge enterprise over the years and there was a big crowd lined up in front of us when we arrived.  Undaunted, we traced our way to the back of the line and hoped it would move fast.  It did not.

Whatever else anyone may say about Jay Powell’s much-awaited speech in Jackson Hole, it had two distinct virtues. It was clear and it was brief, running to just 1,300 well-chosen words.

In the same spirit, and despite a sharp 1,008 point slide in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday, it is important to be succinct in discussing both where the economy is and potential Fed policy going forward.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the Insights Now podcast.

The phrase “drawing a line in the sand” has an unhappy history.  In the U.S., it is said to have originated with Colonel William B. Travis, who drew a line in the sand at the Alamo declaring his willingness to fight and die rather than surrender.  In 2008, following the takeover of Bear Stearns earlier that year, federal authorities drew a line in the sand and let Lehman Brothers go bankrupt.  And in recent weeks, Fed officials have seemed to draw a line in the sand on inflation.

For the podbeam description, can we add the following line towards the end: “For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the Insights Now podcast.”

Normally, the great challenge in talking about the global economy is finding a theme.  The economic fortunes of nations are usually driven by such a disparate array of political, financial, demographic and environmental cross-currents that it is impossible to establish a framework for analysis.  Twice however, in this still young century, events have unfolded to provide just such a theme as the world battled the global financial crisis in 2008 and the global pandemic in 2020.

For additional insights from Dr. David Kelly, listen to the Insights Now podcast.

After weeks of steamy hot temperatures, a cold front is set to move through the Boston suburbs on Tuesday. While the relief will be nice, in truth, the temperature will only edge down from the low 90s to the low 80s. However, it is the start of something and, as we are well aware in this part of the country, longer-term forces will bring us much colder weather before too long.

The long history of financial markets, like most classic novels, is full of misunderstandings, miscalculations and mistakes. Despite all of this, the story normally twists and turns its way to a happy ending. This may yet be the case for investors in the very unusual economy that has unfolded following the pandemic recession and recovery.