Episodes
![Shifting Fundamentals Still Point to Higher Rates](https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4666493/jpm-am_podcast_cover_NOTWA_1400x1400_300x300.png)
Monday Jan 10, 2022
Shifting Fundamentals Still Point to Higher Rates
Monday Jan 10, 2022
Monday Jan 10, 2022
There is an old and much-quoted saying by the Greek philosopher Heraclitus: “A man never steps in the same river twice” – because it is not the same river and it is not the same man. A very similar observation could be made about investors considering their portfolios as the pandemic, hopefully, begins to wane. Covid-19, and the policy choices it triggered, changed the economic and financial landscape in a significant manner. However, it also changed investors, leaving them, for the most part, with larger portfolios but also with portfolios that are more seriously out of balance.
![Pumping the Brakes on the U.S. Economy](https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4666493/jpm-am_podcast_cover_NOTWA_1400x1400_300x300.png)
Monday Jan 03, 2022
Pumping the Brakes on the U.S. Economy
Monday Jan 03, 2022
Monday Jan 03, 2022
Growing up in Dublin, my parents were of the firm belief that the streets of the city were safer without David behind the wheel of a car. Consequently, I first learnt to drive in my early 20s on the backroads and highways of Michigan, with my future wife, Sari, as my instructor. There were a number of perils associated with this including my tendency to ignore all traffic signs when focused on the task of steering the car or my habit of stalling out due a chronic inability to synchronize the application of the clutch and the accelerator. It didn’t help that Sari would burst into a fit of giggles at the moments when I put us in the greatest and most imminent danger and was in particular need of quick and level-headed advice.
![The Fed turns more hawkish…for now](https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4666493/jpm-am_podcast_cover_NOTWA_1400x1400_300x300.png)
Monday Dec 13, 2021
The Fed turns more hawkish…for now
Monday Dec 13, 2021
Monday Dec 13, 2021
When our children were very young and they committed some transgression, we had a rule in our house. It wasn’t enough to say sorry. You had to say what you were sorry for. That way, we had some hope that they wouldn’t make the same mistake again.
![The Great Worker Shortage](https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4666493/jpm-am_podcast_cover_NOTWA_1400x1400_300x300.png)
Monday Dec 06, 2021
The Great Worker Shortage
Monday Dec 06, 2021
Monday Dec 06, 2021
Despite a disappointing gain in non-farm payrolls in November, numerous recent data points show an extraordinary excess demand for workers. This excess demand won’t persist forever. However, it’s important to understand its causes as this can provide some guidance on two crucial questions, namely, how long might it last and how will it be resolved. The answers to these questions can also help in assessing which asset classes could outperform in 2022 and beyond.
![The Investment Implications of Omicron](https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4666493/jpm-am_podcast_cover_NOTWA_1400x1400_300x300.png)
Monday Nov 29, 2021
The Investment Implications of Omicron
Monday Nov 29, 2021
Monday Nov 29, 2021
Financial markets tumbled last week as reports spread of a new, highly-mutated variant of Covid-19 which could be more contagious than the Delta variant and which could evade some of the immunity built up around the globe over the past year through vaccinations and infections.
![More Clarity and Less Stimulus from Washington](https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4666493/jpm-am_podcast_cover_NOTWA_1400x1400_300x300.png)
Monday Nov 22, 2021
More Clarity and Less Stimulus from Washington
Monday Nov 22, 2021
Monday Nov 22, 2021
The week ahead will, of course, be dominated by Thanksgiving, leading, appropriately, to less focus on financial markets. That being said, this should also be a week of greater clarity on fiscal and monetary policy. This clarity should reinforce the view that Washington aid will become considerably less generous in the year ahead, reducing inflation fears but posing some threat to recently very strong profit growth.
![Why Inflation still looks mostly Transitory](https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4666493/jpm-am_podcast_cover_NOTWA_1400x1400_300x300.png)
Monday Nov 15, 2021
Why Inflation still looks mostly Transitory
Monday Nov 15, 2021
Monday Nov 15, 2021
Financial market commentary in the week ahead will likely center around the question of inflation. The headlines speak for themselves. CPI inflation jumped to 6.2% year-over-year in October, its highest reading in 31 years.
![Getting Back on the Recovery Track](https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4666493/jpm-am_podcast_cover_NOTWA_1400x1400_300x300.png)
Monday Nov 08, 2021
Getting Back on the Recovery Track
Monday Nov 08, 2021
Monday Nov 08, 2021
My first summer job as a teenager was in the mailroom of a Dublin law-firm.
The more intellectual duties of this position involved substantial paper-folding, envelope-licking and a daily fight with the franking machine. However, the important part of the job was buzzing around Dublin on my 10-speed bike (with the dropdown handlebars), delivering the mail directly to various law offices and clients and thus eliminating the inevitable delays of the Dublin postal service.
![The Pandemic and Financial Waves](https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4666493/jpm-am_podcast_cover_NOTWA_1400x1400_300x300.png)
Monday Nov 01, 2021
The Pandemic and Financial Waves
Monday Nov 01, 2021
Monday Nov 01, 2021
It feels like so long ago, but back in 2019, the economic and financial environment was remarkably placid. Real GDP growth was plodding along at 2.3% pace, unemployment drifted down to end the year at 3.6% and corporate profits were growing slowly from very high levels. Consumption deflator inflation was still running below the Fed’s 2% target and, in recognition of this fact, as well as market volatility at the end of 2018 and a sluggish global economy, the Fed cut the federal funds rate three times to end the year in a range of 1.50%-1.75%. While the political weather in America was stormy, the investment environment was remarkably calm.
![The Stagflation Scare](https://pbcdn1.podbean.com/imglogo/image-logo/4666493/jpm-am_podcast_cover_NOTWA_1400x1400_300x300.png)
Monday Oct 18, 2021
The Stagflation Scare
Monday Oct 18, 2021
Monday Oct 18, 2021
Every summer since 1960, the World Lumberjack Championships have been held in Hayward, Wisconsin, a small community in the north west of the state. Among the featured events in this and similar gatherings is logrolling, where two competitors scamper furiously on top of a very wet and smooth log, floating on a shallow, muddy lake.