The Inflation Outlook

The inflation temperature is about to rise. It should be a low-grade fever, triggered by tariff impacts but mitigated by low energy prices, declines in shelter inflation and global economic sluggishness. But it should also linger well above the Fed’s 2% target, as the initial impact of tariffs is supplemented by the effects of a weakening dollar, a lack of labor supply and fiscal stimulus in the first half of 2026. It could, of course, be further sustained by another round of fiscal stimulus before the mid-term elections.